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Winners of REIT earnings season
The Property Chronicle | By David Auerbach
Over 200 US REITs and homebuilders have reported first-quarter earnings results over the past four weeks, providing critical information on the state of the commercial and residential real estate industry. A microcosm of the past two years across REIT world, interest rate movements dictated the narrative and stock performance, overshadowing what was ultimately a relatively solid earnings season for the sector. Consistent with the “Rates Up, REITs Down” paradigm, REITs sold-off sharply in late April as the 10-year Yield jumped to six-month highs, but rebounded strongly in early May after the weak nonfarm payrolls report and subsequent dovish Fed commentary revived some hopes of multiple rate cuts later this year. Of the 99 REITs that provide guidance, 41 (41%) raised their full-year FFO outlook, 48 (48%) maintained, while 10 REITs (10%) lowered their guidance – a “raise rate” that is slightly above the historical first-quarter average of around 40%. Within this group, 80% of the guidance revisions were to the upside, while 20% were negative. By comparison, FactSet reports that, among the S&P 500 companies that updated their guidance, 52% raised their outlook, while 48% lowered their forecast.
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